Humid, unsettled weather continues this week

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The final result

Some weeks offer great weather. Some weeks are active and complicated. The forecast for this week is in the middle. We alternate between great beach days and slightly stormy days. The common thread here is the humidity – if you want to sniff pleasantly dry air, you have to wait until the weekend.

There are only two chances of strong, super-soaking thunderstorms this week. First, from a compact rain cloud that can Impact on New Jersey early Tuesday. And then another round of thunderstorms should arrive late Thursday.

We’re starting to get a preview of Father’s Day weekend as well. (By the way, also on the last weekend of spring.) And it’s looking good, with a little hesitation.

Monday

The highest rainfall in NJ over the weekend exceeded 2 inches. Certainly not everywhere. And everyone in New Jersey found some sun peaks and breaks in the wet weather on both Saturday and Sunday.

As I write this (6am) we still have a few patchy storm cells in New Jersey. A washed-out frontal boundary is parked above us. While that won’t have a major impact on temperatures, humidity or wind on Monday, it does provide an impetus for a scattered shower or thunderstorm at any time. And if a storm cell gets under way, it could produce a narrow swath of heavy rain. Again very isolated stuff.

Still, I think Monday will be far more dry as wet although. Look for periods of sun and cloud in the midst of a warm and humid day. High temperatures will mostly shoot for Monday afternoon in the mid-80s – a typical mid-summer day. The coast gets about 10+ degrees cooler thanks to the onset of sea breezes.

JERSEY SHORE REPORT: Monday 6/13

Monday night will remain calm with partly cloudy skies. It will be a bit sticky – you will notice some moisture in the air. The lows will drop into the mid 60s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

To understand Tuesday’s prediction, we need to talk about the definition of a Mesoscale convective systemor MCS. It’s a fancy term for a compact cluster of thunderstorms. The rain area is much smaller than that of a typical cold front or low-pressure system (which are on the “synoptic” scale). And that makes them much more difficult to locate and forecast.

Well, there’s going to be a neighborhood MCS early Tuesday riding the ridge. There is a chance of overcast New Jersey with rain and clouds – mainly in the morning hours, mainly in the south and west. However, there’s also a chance it will drench Pennsylvania and Delaware, but Not New Jersey. The model guide has a bad grip on this thing.

I hate making such an uncertain “boom or bust” prediction, but I want to lay out all the solutions here so you can plan your day accordingly. Worst case scenario, over an inch of rain in South Jersey. In the best case dry with clouds and pleasantly warm temperatures.

The high temperature on Tuesday averages 80 degrees. There is a lot of give and take in this part of the forecast as well. If we stay dry and sunny I could see another day in the low to mid 80s for most of the state. However, if the rain wins, we’ll be stuck in the 70’s.

Wednesday

You want another great day at the beach, there you go. Mostly sunny skies, with dry weather throughout the day. Temperatures will be nice and warm, in the low to mid 80’s.

Thursday

Back to a fickle weather day.

At the moment I see a small chance of scattered showers on Thursday morning. Then a better chance of extensive thunderstorms Thursday evening. There’s a risk of severe weather there – something we’ll be tracking for the next 84 hours or so.

In the middle it will be a partly to mostly cloudy day. High temperatures are seasonal, close enough to 80 degrees.

The extended prognosis

Friday is a cold front day, a day of rapid transition. However, the GFS model currently shows that the front passage is completely dry. Simply airy.

Friday begins warmly, with thermometers reaching almost 90 degrees again. And then in the afternoon the wind direction changes and there is cooler, drier air. While I wouldn’t rule out showers or thunderstorms, we’re sticking with a dry, bright and happy forecast for now.

The drop in moisture should be felt immediately. (And welcome.) But the cooldown won’t really kick in until Saturday.

This cooler, drier mass of air should bring us comfortable weather conditions for the big Father’s Day weekend. But there is a chance that we might get a bit “too” chilly for summer activities like beach, pool etc. Right now I would put high temperatures in the mid to high 70’s. I’d like to see them closer to 80 degrees to go full throttle on a nice weekend.

Our next significant chance of rain won’t show up until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

NJ WEATHER CENTER: Your 5-Day Forecast and More

Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time forecasts and weather updates.

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